Приложения разработчика Sanda_Blur в Android Market

Lottery Number Picker (v. 1.3)

Sanda_Blur опубликовал приложение 2012-05-23
(обновлено 2012-05-23)

Predicting lotto numbers is a pointless exercise. Let’s be clear: You cannot change the probability of you winning the lottery. The only way to increase the probability of you as an individual winning the lottery is to buy more tickets. The Lottery Number Picker gives the user a fun, interesting, and effective way to choose MegaMillions lottery numbers while avoiding the Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand Streak error. After all, choosing the numbers that are least frequent or choosing the numbers that are most frequent will likely end up in you losing a lot of money. Instead, we randomize least frequent and random combinations of numbers. If you want better control of your lottery wins, don’t go picking the same number every time or using the techniques described earlier. Biased players end up losing far more money. Instead, use our program to decrease your chances of having a bias. This is indicated in a paper by Claus Bjorn Jorgensen, Sigrid Suetens, and Jean-Robert Tyran called Predicting Lotto Numbers. I argue that choosing completely randomly each time on the same piece of hardware at your local grocery store or gas station is also a bias. However, choosing some numbers at random and choosing others based on an algorithm could decrease your chances of having a bias. This application is a study of that.

There are two algorithms that can be used to choose your lottery numbers in this application:

LeastFrequent:
This is the algorithm that I describe above that decreases bias. The way that each ball is chosen is with a coin flip. If the flip is “heads”, the individual ball that will be chosen will be a random choice from least frequently chosen numbers in the past. If the flip is tails, it will use the mobile devices random number generator to generate a number a random number of times to give you your lottery pick. This acts as a random burnout. The claim is that this will result in ales biased selection than the simple generator used by MegaMillions machines.

TrueRandom:
Truly being random by doing random burns on all the balls.

Hot Hand Streak:
Like the LeastFrequent algorithm, but choosing the most frequent occurring numbers